흐름 거래 전략

거래자가 Money Flow 표시기를 사용할 때 구현하는 일반적인 전략은 무엇입니까?

주식 거래자가 구현하는 일반적인 전략은 지표로 제공되는 초과 매수 또는 초과 매도에 따라 거래를 시작하거나 종료하는 것입니다. 자금 흐름 표시기는 가격이나 볼륨을 별도로 사용하는 것보다 시장 모멘텀에 대한 정확한 평가를 상인에게주기 위해 가격과 볼륨을 사용하여 계산됩니다. 그것은 높은 가격, 낮은 가격 및 가까운 가격을 평균 한 다음 그 수치를 거래량으로 곱합니다. 전날보다 높은 평균 가격으로 각 거래일을 계산하고 전날보다 평균 가격이 낮은 각 거래일을 계산함으로써 화폐 흐름은 누적 및 유통을 측정하는 것을 목표로합니다. 운동량 지표로서, 자금 흐름은 주가의 과매 수 또는 과매도 상태를 나타내는 데 사용됩니다. 80 이상은 초과 매수 조건을 나타내고, 20 미만은 초과 매도 상태를 나타냅니다.

돈 흐름 표시기는 과매 수 및 과매도 상태의보다 신뢰할 수있는 지표 중 하나이기 때문에 아마도 70 및 30의 RSI 과대 / 과매 기준에 비해 80 및 20의 높은 판독 값을 사용하기 때문에 거래자는 일반적으로 지표의 움직임에 따라 주식을 팔아야한다.

예를 들어, 주식 거래자는 자금 흐름 표시기가 20 이하의 지수로 떨어지면 새로운 구매 포지션을 시작한 다음, 자금 흐름 표시기가 80의 지수에 가까워 질 때까지 주식을 보유합니다. 그 시점에서 상인은 그 또는 그녀의 구매 위치에서 이익을 얻고 다른 구매 기회를 더 낮은 가격으로 기다리거나 자신의 긴 포지션을 청산하지 말고 지표가 20 이상의 낙폭 과대 근처에서 접근 할 때 이익을 취할 것으로 보이는 짧은 매도 포지션을 시작하십시오 .

과매 수 / 과매도 지표와 마찬가지로 시장이 지나치게 확장 된 것으로 시장이 나타내는 가격을 크게 상회하거나 하향 조정할 위험이 있습니다. 이러한 이유로 상인들은 종종 다른 지표를 사용하여 통화 흐름 지표를 보완합니다.

필요한 두 가지 주문 흐름 거래 전략.

다른 거래 분야와 비교할 때, 주문 흐름 거래에는 적어도 외환 시장에서는 사용할 수없는 많은 거래 전략이 포함되어 있지 않습니다. 그 이유는 구매 주문이 실시간으로 시장에 진입하는 것을 볼 수있는 적절한 주문서가 없기 때문입니다. 우리에게는 Oanda의 주문서가 있습니다. 하지만 이는 큰 한계가 있으며, 선물이나 주식을 거래하는 경우 사용할 수있는 실제 주문서 대신 사용할 수 없습니다.

실제 주문서가 없다는 사실에도 불구하고, 우리가 거래에서 사용할 수있는 주문 흐름 거래 전략이 여전히 있습니다. 그 중 두 가지가 오늘의 기사에서 당신을 보여줄 것입니다. 이 기사에서 선택한 두 가지 전략은 전체 주문 흐름 거래 시스템이 아니기 때문에 현재 거래 전략을 바꾸기 위해 걱정할 필요가 없다면 그냥 사용할 수 있습니다 추가 설정으로 시장 거래시기를 조심하십시오.

주문 흐름 전략 # 1 Oanda의 주문서를 사용하여 Stop Hunts를 거래합니다.

Oanda의 주문서는 외환 거래자가 구매 및 판매 주문을 한 곳에서 사용자에게 내부 모습을 제공하는 몇 가지 주문 흐름 표시기 중 하나입니다. 주문이 어디에 배치되었는지를 알 수 있다는 사실은이 주문을 사용하여 가장 오래된 주문 흐름 거래 전략 중 하나 인 스톱 헌트를 교환 할 수 있음을 의미합니다. # 8217;

스톱 헌트 (stop stop) (또는 사람들이 자주 전화를 걸 때 멈춤)는 많은 소매업 종사자들이 스톱 로스를당한 지점을 통해 시장이 급증 할 때 일어나는 일입니다. 그 이유는 은행 거래자들이 시장이 많은 정체를 치게함으로써 유리한 가격에 많은 자신의 거래를 얻을 수있는 기회를 갖게되거나, 이미 큰 폭의 이윤을 창출하는 거래에서 벗어났다.

정지 사냥이 어디에서 일어날 것인가를 찾는 것은 주문 흐름에 대한 이해와 거래자가 생각하고 결정하는 방법을 기반으로하는 것이 었습니다. 이 거래 방법은 사냥꾼이 위치를 정확히 알지 못하는 대신 시장에서 거래가 중단 된 지점을 근본적으로 추측했기 때문에 사냥의 정확성이 다양했다. Oanda의 Order Book 발견은이 모든 것을 바꿔 놓았습니다. 왜냐하면 거래자들이 정류장을 찾은 정확한 가격을 볼 수 있기 때문에 정지 사냥이 시장에 발생할 가능성이있는 지점을 볼 수있게 되었기 때문입니다.

나는이 기사에서 멈추어 진 사냥을 거래하는 정확한 방법을 상세하게 다루지 않을 것이다. 왜냐하면 나는 여기에 찾을 수있는 긴 글을 이미 썼기 때문이다. 그러나 나는 간단한 예제를 통해 EUR / USD에서 일어난 중지 실행, 다만 당신은 그들이 시장에서 발생하는 것을 볼 수 있습니다.

여기에 Oanda의 Order Book에 대한 이미지가 있습니다.

너가 심상의 좌측에 열려있는 순서 도표를 본 경우에, USD / JPY에 119.500 수준의 주위에 판매 중지 주문의 큰 구조가 있던 것을 볼 수 있는다.

이렇게 많은 정지 주문이이 수준에서 축적되었다는 사실은 은행 거래자가 시장을 정류장으로 만들거나 많은 구매 거래를 적절한 가격에 배치하거나 일부를 가져갈 가능성이 있음을 의미합니다. 이미 이익을 얻은 거래를 팔아 이익을 얻습니다.

이 이미지는 시장이 매도 정지를 통해 급상승했을 때 어떤 일이 일어 났는지 보여줍니다.

일단 시장이 매도세를 멈 추면 가격이 더 오르고 시간이 다가 감에 따라 완고한 핀바가 형성되는 것을 볼 수 있습니다. 이 정지를 실행하는 경우, 낙관적 인 핀 막대는 구매 거래를 입력하고 반전을 교환하는 데 사용하는 신호입니다. 그것은 거래가 거래를하게하거나 거래를 팔아 이익을 얻기 위해 은행 매매가가 실제로 시장을 매수 정지로 옮기게 만든 사인이다. 이 사례에서 은행들은 10 월 5 일에 창출 된 스윙 최고치에 놓인 판매 거래로부터 약간의 이익을 취하기 위해 매도 행마를 사용하기로 결정했습니다. 우리는 시장이 스톱 러닝에 의해 생성 된 스윙 최저를 돌파했을 때 일어난 150 핍 하락 때문에 이것이 사실임을 안다.

이 브로커와 함께 최대 $ 5000 보너스 *.

XM은 0 pips, Negative Balance Protection, Forex에 대한 CFD, 주식, 지표, Gold & amp; 기름.

신청하려면 여기를 클릭하십시오.

Oanda의 Order Book을 사용하여 거래 중단을 실행하는 이유는 거래를 성공적으로 처리 할 확률이 높고 거래를 할 때와 같은 시간에 거래를하게된다는 것입니다. 은행 거래자들은 그들 자신의 거래를하고있다. 이익을 얻음으로 인한 매도세 거래를 끝내더라도 결과 반전은 일반적으로 약간의 이익을 창출 할만큼 충분히 크거나 적어도 최소한 돈을 잃지 않고 거래를 종료 할 수 있습니다.

소규모 범위 통합에서 브레이크 아웃이 발생하는 것을 관찰하는 주문 흐름 전략 # 2를 주문하십시오.

작은 범위의 통합에서 발생할 수있는 브레이크 아웃을 관찰하는 것은 현재의 방법에 추가 할 수있는 또 다른 주문 흐름 거래 전략입니다. 그것은 거래 중지 사냥과 비슷하지만, 종종 그렇게 자주 일어나지 않는 설정이지만, 일반적으로 성공할 확률이 높은 좋은 거래를 제공합니다 .

이 방법의 주요 아이디어는 다수의 다른 거래자가 거래를 청산하는 과정에있을 때 거래 위치에 도달하는 것입니다. 잃어버린 무역을 종결한다는 것은 처음에 무역을 얻으려고 한 것과 반대의 행동을 의미합니다. 예를 들어, 구매 거래를 한 경우에만 거래를 마감 할 수있는 유일한 방법은 판매 주문을 사용하는 것입니다. 즉, 수익 또는 손실 여부와 상관없이 거래를 종료 할 때 판매 주문이 시장에 처형된다. 많은 수의 거래자들이 서로 비슷한 시간에 잃어버린 거래를 마감한다면 많은 주문이 시장에 진입하여 가격이 움직일 것입니다.

이 상인들이 그들의 거래를 끝내기 직전에 거래를 할 수 있다면, 당신은 그들의 청산이 창출 할 움직임으로부터 이익을 얻을 수 있습니다.

여기에 EUR / USD로 형성된 두 개의 소규모 범위 통합에 대한 이미지가 있습니다.

작은 범위의 통합은 기본적으로 비슷한 크기의 스윙을 갖는 통합이며 서로 높은 가격과 낮은 가격을 서로 비슷한 가격에 갖습니다. 위 이미지에서 볼 수있는 두 개의 통합에는 이러한 요소가 모두 포함되어 있습니다. 그들의 구성을 구성하는 스윙은 상대적으로 동등하며 대부분의 최고치와 최저치는 비슷한 가격으로 형성됩니다. 이는 최고치와 최저치를 통해 직선을 그릴 수 있으며 큰 거리로 튀어 나와.

이제 각 연결이 형성된 후에 발생할 수있는 다운 스윙은 주로 구매 거래를 마감하는 연결 회사 내부에서 오래 동안 지내던 거래자의 결과로 발생합니다. 이 상인들은 그들의 구매 거래가 연결의 최고가 형성되었던 곳 가까이에 놓여 있었을 것입니다. 그래서 시장이 연결에서 벗어나기 시작할 때 그들의 거래 손실 규모는 더 이상 처리 할 수없는 지점까지 증가합니다 그들의 무역을 열어두고 잠재적으로 더 이상 돈을 잃을 까봐 두려워하지 않기로 결정했습니다.

이것은 상인들이 모두 서로 비슷한 지점 (즉, 연결의 최고점)에 놓여있는 긴 거래를 갖기 때문에 거의 동시에 발생하기 때문에 거래가 마감되면 엄청난 수의 매도 주문이 시장에 진입하여 하락할 가격. 이해해야 할 중요한 사항은 이전에 있었던 것보다 훨씬 큰 손실에 직면했을 때 거래가 끝나는 것입니다. 손실이 소량 만 증가하면 거래를 종결해야한다는 느낌을 갖지 않아 큰 움직임이 일어나지 않습니다.

작은 범위의 통합 브레이크 아웃을 거래하는 열쇠는 잃어버린 상인 거래에 손실을 가져온 촛대에 놓여있는 거래를 이전보다 훨씬 커지게 만드는 것입니다.

이미지를 다시 보면 큰 곰 같은 양초 바로 아래에 X가 표시되어 시장이 통합에서 벗어나는 것을 볼 수 있습니다.

이 촛대는 합병 내부에서 오래간 거래자들로 하여금 거래를 종결 짓기 시작한 원인이었습니다. 그 이유는 상인 거래가 이전보다 훨씬 커지게 되었기 때문입니다. 전에 형성 한 3 개의 곰 같은 양초를 보면, 그들은 모두 작고 시장이 멀리 떨어지는 것을 볼 수 없습니다. 그들이 큰 폭의 하락을 일으키지 않았다는 사실은 잃어버린 거래를 끝내지 못했던 대다수의 상인이 그들의 손실이 충분히 커지지 않았기 때문에 가능하다는 것을 의미합니다. 많은 돈을 잃어 버릴 까봐 두렵다.

큰 곰 같은 촛대가 형성 될 때 이것은 모두 변경됩니다. 왜냐하면 그것은 훨씬 더 큰 낙하를 만들어서 거래자 거래가 더 작은 곰 같은 촛대가 형성되었을 때보 다 훨씬 더 큰 손실로 가게하기 때문입니다. 그들의 손실이 훨씬 커지면 잃어버린 거래를 마감하고 큰 곰 같은 양초가 형성된 후에 우리가 볼 수있는 움직임을 만듭니다.

이 설정에서 볼 수있는 큰 곰 같은 촛대는 작은 범위의 통합 거래를 입력하는 데 사용할 신호입니다. 이 설정을 직접 거래 할 때 상인 거래 손실을 극적으로 증가시키는 촛불을 찾아야합니다. 이 양초는 이전에 형성되었던 이전 양초와 비교할 때 대개 매우 커서, 시장을 최저치 또는 최대치까지 끌어 올립니다. 양초가 닫힌 직후 거래가 시작됩니다. 정지 손실은 양초의 높이보다 높거나, 이미지의 곰 같은 설정이거나 양초의 최저점보다 낮 으면 낮아집니다 낙관적 인 준비였습니다.

작은 범위의 거래에서 발생한 거래는 거래 중지보다 약간 어렵지만, 적절하게 거래하는 방법을 배울 때 큰 결과를 얻을 수있는 주문 흐름 전략입니다. 어떤 양초로 인해 상인들이 잃어버린 무역을 종식하게하는지 알아내는 것은 일반적으로 힘든 부분이지만 소규모 지역 합병으로 인한 탈주의 사례를보고 나면, 보고 싶은 촛대 종류에 대해 꽤 잘 파악해야합니다 무역에 들어가기 위해서.

이 브로커와 함께 최대 $ 5000 보너스 *.

XM은 0 pips, Negative Balance Protection, Forex에 대한 CFD, 주식, 지표, Gold & amp; 기름.

신청하려면 여기를 클릭하십시오.

바라기를이 기사에있는 2 개의 순서 교류 전략은 몇몇 성공적인 무역을 당신에게 줄 것이고 당신이 시장에서 당신의 이익을 증가시키는 것을 도울 것이다. 그것들은 실제로 배우고 거래하는 가장 쉬운 거래 전략이 아닐 수도 있지만, 마스터 링에 대한 보상은 사용법을 배우는 데 지출해야 할 시간을 보충하는 것 이상입니다.

읽어 주셔서 감사합니다. 아래 질문란에 질문 사항을 남겨주세요.

공급 찾기 및 amp; 필요한 작동 구역!

어떻게 오래되는 공급 및 수요 지역은 시장을 뒤집어 놓을 수 없으며 이유는 왜 상인들이 실수로 믿는가? 왜 시장이 공급을 되찾거나 수요 지역으로 돌아갈 지 결정 지대는 날씨를 결정할 것입니다. 반전을 일으키는 반전을 일으키는 원인이되는 은행 중개인에 의해 창조 된 지역 사이 다름 은행 거래자에 의해 창조 된 이익 및 지역을 가지고 가기 무역을 두는.

무료 다운로드에 액세스하려면 아래에 가입하십시오.

3 응답.

유용한 기사 (y)

나는 최근에 당신의 명단에 서명했습니다. 나는 아직 귀하의 6000 + 단어 전자 서적 링크를받지 못했습니다.

이 문제에 대한 귀하의 도움은 높이 평가 될 것입니다. 비참하게도 값 비싼 지식을 무료로 나누어 주신 것에 대해 너무 감사드립니다. 완전히 다른 빛으로 표준 가격 행동 패턴을보기 시작했습니다.

나는 이미 귀하의 목록에 서명하고 정기적으로 귀하의 기사를 읽는 중입니다. 국제적으로, 나는 외환 거래가 불법 인 인도 주식 시장에서 거래합니다. 하나는 4 통화 쌍의 선물 거래 만 허용됩니다 USD-INR, GBP-INR, EUR - INR과 내가 기억하지 못하는 한 쌍 더.

선생님, 제 질문은 다양한 방법론을 적용 할 수 있습니까, 인도 주식 거래를 위해 외환 시장에 권장하는 전략입니까? 저는 특히 수요와 공급 기반의 거래 전략에 관심이 있습니다. 내가 Forex 시장에 대해 갖고있는 지식이 조금이라도 있긴하지만, 24 시간 공개 시장이라는 사실을 알기 때문에 간격이 거의 없거나 거의 없습니다. 주식은 거의 매일 Gap-up 또는 Gap-down 일입니다. 거대한.

이러한 격차를 잠재적 인 공급 또는 수요 구역으로 해석하는 방법에 대해 알고 싶습니다.

5 오늘 시도해야하는 주문 흐름 거래 전략.

5 오늘 시도해야하는 주문 흐름 거래 전략.

새로운 거래자는 종종 은행 및 특정 수준에서 활발한 활동을하는 기관들은 실제로 활동에 의해 생성 된 엄청난 움직임을 종종 볼 것입니다. 슬프게도 이러한 플레이어가 시장에 진입하는 위치를 슬프게도 측정 할 수 없으며, 이러한 상수로부터 어떻게 이익을 얻는 지에 대해서도 훨씬 덜 측정 할 수 있습니다 유동성의 흐름.

Littlefish의 우리는 Banks & amp; Bank의 유량과 양을 추적하는 지표를 개발했습니다. 시장의 기관들과 방향성 흐름을 조정할 기회를 제공하는 신호를 생성합니다. 모든 위대한 지표와 마찬가지로, 지표는 잠재 시장 진입을 파악하고 강력한 주문 도구로 주문 흐름 거래자를 사용하는 견고한 거래 전략의 일환으로 사용될 때 가장 수익이 높습니다.

지금 당장 시도해야하는 5 가지 주문 흐름 거래 전략을 실행하면서 계속 읽어보십시오!

1. COT로 주문 흐름.

유효한 시장 정보의 절대적인 대부분을 만들기, 이 전략은 Forex에있는 큰 물고기와 일치하여 무역하는 믿을 수 없을만큼 강력한 방법이다. 우리의 COT 표시기는 주간 COT 보고서의 데이터를 자동으로 가져 와서 주 시장 참가자의 위치를 ​​차트에 직접 표시하여 은행 및 금융 기관에보다 폭 넓은 편향을 제공합니다. 주문 흐름 거래자는 자신의 활동의 흐름과 양을 추적하여 방향 편향과 일치하는 특정 항목을 제공합니다.

2014 년에 39,000 pips의 이익을 창출 한 Banks & amp; 주요 기관 명확하고 읽기 쉬운 신호 신호를 확인하기 위해 차트를 확인하는 데 걸리는 시간이 조금 걸립니다.

또한 £ 10 & # 8211;에 대해 14 일 동안 FX 지표에 대한 모든 액세스 권한을 얻으십시오. 지금 다운로드하려면 여기를 클릭하십시오!

2.Multi-Timeframe 주문 흐름.

놀랍도록 강력한 스윙 거래 전략이 Banks & amp; 주요 기관들은 훨씬 더 큰 규모로 OFT 신호를보다 높은 시간대에 사용하여 무역 방향을 표시하고 OFT 신호를 합병하여 합법적으로 OFT 신호를 확인함으로써 거래를 확인하고 위험을 낮추고 잠재적으로 훨씬 더 큰 움직임으로 진입 할 수 있습니다.

차트에 하나의 지표 만 있으면됩니다. 다중 합류 포지션을 통해 매우 높은 수익 창출 Banks & amp; 장기간에 걸친 주요 기관들은 환상적인 경향을 파악합니다.

또한 £ 10 & # 8211;에 대해 14 일 동안 FX 지표에 대한 모든 액세스 권한을 얻으십시오. 지금 다운로드하려면 여기를 클릭하십시오!

3. 위협 위협 거래 (COT & Pin Bar를 통한 주문 흐름)

Order Flow & amp; COT 전략, 이번에는 LFX가 선호하는 고전적인 Pin Bar 촛대를 가져와 거래 항목에 대한 추가 확인 작업을합니다. 보다 보수적 인 상인에게 맞춰진이 3 단계 전략은 다중 필터 접근 방식의 보안으로 광범위한 시장 움직임에 대한 주요 항목을 식별하는 데 도움이됩니다.

훨씬 더 보수적이고 낮은 거래 빈도 실제 정확한 신호에서 큰 시장 움직임으로 진입 시장 정보 및 가격 조치를 사용하여 수익성있는 거래 항목 생성 핀바 표시기를 사용하여 핀바를 자동으로 강조 표시하고 매개 변수를 사용자 정의 할 수 있습니다.

또한 £ 10 & # 8211;에 대해 14 일 동안 FX 지표에 대한 모든 액세스 권한을 얻으십시오. 지금 다운로드하려면 여기를 클릭하십시오!

4. RSI를 통한 주문 흐름.

구형과 신형의 장점을 결합한이 강력한 스윙 거래 전략은 엄청나게 직선적이며 따라하기 쉽고 환상적인 거래를 강조하기 위해 다중 시간 프레임 OFT 확인과 함께 RSI 분기를 사용합니다. 더 높은 시간대의 거래자는이 방법의 단순성과 효율성을 좋아할 것입니다.

RSI 발산 효과를 완전히 향상시킵니다. 일일 & amp; H4 시간대이므로 설정을 모니터링하는 데는 충분한 시간이 필요합니다. 낮은 시간대에도 사용할 수 있습니다. 큰 반전 점에서 정말 빡빡한 응모를합니다. 배우기 쉬운 과정으로 정말 간단한 전략입니다.

또한 £ 10 & # 8211;에 대해 14 일 동안 FX 지표에 대한 모든 액세스 권한을 얻으십시오. 지금 다운로드하려면 여기를 클릭하십시오!

5. 차트 패턴으로 주문 흐름.

트레이더에게 시장 구조를 읽는 방법과 OFT를 사용하여 과거의 시장 패턴에 따라 움직임을 확인하는 방법을 가르치는 매우 효과적인 전략으로 단순하고 쉽게 거래 기회를 창출 할 수 있습니다.

간단하고 신뢰할 수있는 방법 모든 시간대에서 작동합니다. 기본 분석 만 필요합니다. OFT OFT는 패턴 거래의 전통적 문제인 잘못된 탈주 및 거짓 이동을 필터링하는 훌륭한 도구입니다.

그래서 거기 있습니다. 귀하가 배우고 사용하기 시작할 수있는 5 가지 Best Order Flow 거래 전략. 주문 흐름 거래뿐만 아니라 상세한 거래 전략 및 비디오 자료로 가득 찬 거래 계획에 대한 전체 장을 포함하는 Forex 거래 과정을 확인하십시오.

& # 8212; Forex Trading Course를 통해 더 많은 것을 배우고 발견하십시오. 더 많은 정보를 얻으려면, 여기를 클릭하십시오 & # 8212;

& # 8212; 할인 코드 & # 8220; LFXCourseCJ & # 8221;를 사용하십시오. £ 50 할인! & # 8212;

이 공유:

LFX Intraday Alerts.

교육 기사.

리틀 피쉬 FX는 시계 상인과 함께하십시오!

리틀 피쉬 FX를 2 명의 녀석 트레이딩 팟 캐스트에 들으십시오!

소품 거래 : 자본 거래의 기회 & # 8230;

5 오늘 시도해야하는 주문 흐름 거래 전략.

MACD & # 038; 주문 흐름 : MetaStock 웹 세미나.

접촉.

다음 기사 읽기.

유럽 ​​회의에서의 행동에 대한 요약과 뉴욕의 주요 수준과 사건을 미리 살펴 봅니다.

이전 기사 읽기.

Institutional Insights는 구독자에게 제도적 연구와 시장 이동에 대한 시각을 제공하는 프리미엄 기관 조사에 대한 액세스를 제공합니다.

흐름 거래를 주문하는 궁극적 인 가이드.

이 가이드는 여기 주문 흐름 거래에 관한 것이며, 당신이 읽을 수있는 forex 주문 흐름 거래에 대한 궁극적 인 가이드라고 생각합니다.

그것은 정말 주문 흐름 거래 지혜의 몇 가지 단단한 덩어리가 포함되어 있습니다 :

주문 흐름을 읽는 방법 흐름 거래 전략 및 기법 주문 시장 감정을 분석하고이를 주문 흐름과 결합하는 방법 주문 흐름 거래와 가격 동작을 사용하는 방법 시장 미세 구조를 이해하고 주문 흐름 거래 및 기타 여러 가지 이점을 사용하는 방법 게다가.

나는 호기심을 자극하는 데 사용되는 주체이고 실제 실제 거래 상황에 실제로 주문 흐름 지식을 적용하는 방법에 대한 정보는 거의없는 것 같으므로 외환 시장에서 주문 흐름 거래를 검색했습니다.

다행히 나는 babypips에서 Order Flow Trading Thread를 시작한 달리 (Dali)라는 상인에 의해 일을 발견했습니다.

주문 흐름 거래 스레드 자체는 약 40 페이지 정도이므로 전체 스레드를 거쳐 달리가 쓴 모든 필요한 정보를 추출 했으므로 여기서 한 것은 간단히 다시 써서 (개념을 설명하기 위해 조금 더), 재 배열하고, 제목, 자막 등을 넣어보다 쉽게 ​​소화 할 수 있습니다. 한 곳에서 40 페이지의 스레드 (내용)를 거치지 않고 그 스레드에서 다른 모든 불필요한 것들을 읽지 않아도됩니다.

그래서 당신이 읽으려고하는 것은 제 작품이 아닙니다. 그것의 Dali & # 8217; s입니다.

(큰 주문 흐름 거래 정보에 대해 감사하는 달리 & # 8230; 혹시 forextradingstrategies4u를 방문하는 경우)

일부 비트와 내용이 누락되거나 흐름 거래 가이드의 순서대로 연결되지 않을 수 있습니다. 단지 경고 만하는 경우도 있습니다.

목차.

낮은 주문 거래는 무엇이며 그렇지 않은 것은 무엇입니까?

주문 흐름 거래의 정의는 혼란을 야기하는 경향이 있습니다. 다음은 흐름 거래의 순서에 대한 3 가지 잠재적 인 정의입니다.

어떤 사람들은 은행이 제공하는 정보 흐름에서 직접 거래 할 때 그것은 주문 흐름 거래로 간주됩니다. 매우 정직하기를, 그 정보는 매우 소수의 사람들 만 이용할 수 있고 인터넷이나 당신과 공유 할 수 없습니다. 다른 사람들은 주문 흐름 거래가 테이프 읽기라고 생각합니다. 그리고 주문 흐름 거래는 형태 또는 가격 행동 거래라고 생각하는 다른 상인도 있습니다.

따라서이 정의 중 주문 흐름 거래에 맞는 것은 무엇입니까?

위에서 언급 한 모든 방법은 시장에서 미래의 주문 흐름에 대한 기대를 기반으로합니다.

주문 흐름 거래는 사고 방식입니다.

내가 보는 방식은 주문 흐름 거래가 사고 방식이라는 것입니다.

이것은 무엇을 의미 하는가?

기술적 인 패턴을 찾는 대신 상인은 한 단계 더 나아가 다른 시장 참여자가 할 수있는 일에 대해 생각해야합니다.

다른 시장 참여자들이 할 수있는 일에 대해 생각하십시오.

이는 주문 흐름 거래에서 매우 중요한 개념으로 시장 참여자가 어떤 주문을 할 것인지를 생각합니다.

그리고 그 라인을 따라 생각할 때, 시장에서 어떤 종류의 행동을 취할 것인지를 예상 할 수 있습니다.

매일 시장에서 두려움과 탐욕의 힘이 펼쳐지는 것을 볼 수 있습니다.

당신이 새로운 상인이고 당신이 100 % 기술적 인 분석 상인이라면 이것은 기술 분석에 많이 의존했기 때문에 큰 변화가 될 수 있습니다.

그러나 인생의 다른 어떤 것과 마찬가지로, 일단 당신이 그것을 계속 공부하고, 그것을 배우고, 시간이 지남에 따라, 그것은 쉽게되기 시작하고 당신은 완전히 다른 눈으로 외환 시장을 볼 수 있습니다. 그리고 당신은 시작할 것입니다 :

가격이 움직이는 방식 (은행의 흐름 정보만큼 좋지는 않지만 가격 행동은 좋은 통찰력을 제공함)을 알고 있어야합니다. 다른 참가자에 대한 지식을 통해 일반적인 실수를 방지하고 마켓 비 효율성에 대한 지식이 도움이됩니다. 이 모든 것을 결합하고 라이브 거래에서 이러한 기회를 악용하십시오.

상인은 주문 흐름 거래에 대해 많이 논쟁 할 수 있지만 나를 위해 :

주문 흐름 거래는 단순히 일의 방법입니다. 주문 흐름 거래는 일반적인 거래보다 시장 거래에 대한 다른 접근 방식이며 특정 방법으로 제한되지 않습니다.

아시다시피 저는 개인 은행 계좌 정보가 없으며 내부 정보가 없지만 여기에는 시장 미세 구조에 대한 지식이 있습니다. 개인 은행 계좌 정보가 없지만 여전히 지식에 관한 :

시장 미세 구조 및 기타 시장 참가자.

저에게 시장 거래를위한 우위를 제공하고 있습니다.

주문 흐름 거래를 배우는 단계는 무엇입니까?

주문 흐름 거래에 대해 배우려면 다음과 같은 세 가지 기본 단계가 있습니다.

1 단계 : 시장 미세 구조에 대해 알아보기 (가격 변동, 주문 유형, 유동성 등)

2 단계 : 다른 시장 참가자 (광고, 은행 / 딜러, 리얼 머니, 주권자, 대형 투기업자)에 대해 알아보기

3 단계 : 시장의 비효율을 악용하십시오.

주문 유형 및 가격 변경 방법.

이 기사에서는 다음 내용을 다룰 것입니다.

거래에서 사용되는 세 가지 주요 유형의 주문 및 가격 변경 방법.

우리는 실제로 일어나는 일과 움직이는 가격에 대해 살펴볼 것입니다.

주문 흐름 거래를 이해하려면 유동성이라는 용어에 대해서도 알아야합니다.

그렇다면 유동성의 정의는 무엇입니까? 음, 한 가지 예를 들어 보겠습니다.

자산 (구매자)을 구매하려는 경우 해당 자산을 귀하에게 판매하려는 판매자도 있어야합니다.

지금 당신이 판매자라면, 당신이 팔고 자하는 것을 사려고하는 구매자가 필요합니다.

구매자와 판매자가 거래를 할 수있는 한 구매자와 판매자가 거래를 수행 할 수있는 유동성이 있다고 말할 수 있습니다.

이제 당신이 얻게 될 유동성에 대한 가장 간단한 설명입니다.

따라서 거래에서 유동성은 어떻게 생성됩니까?

유동성이 시장에서 어떻게 창출되는지.

유동성은 거래자가 시장에 주문을 내릴 때 만들어지며 이러한 주문을 입찰 및 제안이라고합니다.

다음은 입찰 주문 및 제안 주문의 정의입니다.

입찰은 특정 가격 (현재 시장 가격보다 높음)으로 자산을 구매하는 제한적인 주문입니다. 제안은 정해진 가격으로 자산을 판매하는 제한된 주문입니다 (현재 시장 가격보다 낫습니다).

입찰 및 제공은 시장에서 유동성을 창출하며 시장 주문을 통해 거래하는 참가자에게 제공합니다.

당신이 큰 상인이라면, 유동성은 매우 중요한 요소입니다. 대형 거래자는 얼마만큼의 가격이 움직일 지 생각할 수 없으며 시간이 지나면 어떻게 거래가 중단 될지 생각할 수 있습니다.

글쎄요, 당신이 큰 상인이고 큰 거래 포지션을 닫지는 않을 것이지만 유동성이 없다면 당신은 정말로 좌초됩니다.

이것은 우리 소매 상인에게는 문제가되지 않지만 큰 돈을 거래하는 사람들에게는 확실히 중요한 문제입니다.

시장이 더 유동적 일수록 더 많은 상인을 유치 할 것입니다.

주문 유형.

시장 주문.

시장 주문은 한도 주문에 의해 제공되는 유동성을 소비합니다.

그들은 현재 시장 가격으로 특정 자산을 매매하기 위해 발행 된 명령입니다.

구매 주문서는 최상의 제안에 대해 채워질 것이며 판매 주문서는 사용 가능한 최상의 입찰가에 채워질 것입니다.

시장 주문은 발행하는 참가자가 즉시 거래하기를 원하고 제한 주문을 통해 사용 가능한 유동성을 먹으면서 시장에서 유동성을 빼앗습니다.

주문 제한.

제한 주문은 다른 거래자에게 거래 할 수있는 옵션을 제공하기 때문에 유동성을 제공합니다.

EUR / USD에 1.31000의 1 백만 입찰 (구매 한도 주문)을 발행하면이 가격으로 시장에서 팔려고하는 다른 참가자에게 유동성을 제공합니다.

그들은 제한된 가격보다 불리한 가격으로 채울 수 없기 때문에 제한 주문이라고 부릅니다.

즉, 1.31000의 입찰가가 AT 또는 BELOW (양의 미끄러짐)로 채워질 수 있지만 그 이상은 아닙니다.

외환 시장에는 집계 된 볼륨 데이터가 없기 때문에 주문 도서 또는 DOM (Depth of Market)은 선물 거래에서 주로 사용됩니다. 예:

이 자산에서 우리는 44 및 45의 주문이 없습니다. 즉, 현재 46에서 구매할 수 있고 (43) 가장 좋은 사용 가능한 입찰가로 판매 할 수 있습니다.

만약 내가 45를 팔아서 그 가격으로 제안을하는 것이 좋은 가격이라면, 스프레드는 좁아 질 것이고, 구매자는 내가 팔려고 내놓은 금액만큼 45에서 나를 살 수있을 것이다.

참을성이있는 구매자가 입찰가를 44로 이동한다고 가정 해 보겠습니다.

그는 다시 확산을 줄이고 이제 판매자는 이전보다 더 나은 가격으로 판매 할 수 있습니다. 주문 도서는 다음과 같습니다.

가격이 어떻게 변하는가.

시나리오 1 : 거래자 "A"는 시장에서 자산의 20 건의 계약을 맺습니다.

위의 주문서는 사용 가능한 유동성을 보여 주며, 유동성이 충분하지 않아 45 세에 채워지지 않을 것입니다.

그는 다음과 같이 채워질 것입니다 : 45에서 10, 46에서 8, 47에서 2.

45 및 46시에 모든 유동성을 소비 했으므로 이제 주문서는 다음과 같이 보입니다.

주문서는 47 세 이하의 새로운 입찰가가있을 때까지 계속 유지되며 가격을 올리고 추가 소비를하는 시장 가격 (최상의 제안)에서 더 많은 구매가 있습니다.

DOM은 FX에서 사용되지 않습니다 (또는 적어도 FX의 집계 된 볼륨 데이터가 없기 때문에 사용해서는 안됩니다). 그러나 모든 시장에서 가격 변경 메커니즘은 동일합니다.

제한 주문은 유동성을 제공하고 시장 주문은이를 소비합니다.

주문 중지.

정지 명령은 현재 시장 가격보다 높은 가격으로 구매하거나 현재 시장 가격보다 낮은 가격으로 판매하는 주문입니다.

결정된 가격에 도달 할 때까지 주문이 "중지"되어 실행되기 때문에 "주문 중지"라는 용어가 사용됩니다.

그것은 이미 존재하거나 그 이상으로 가격이 매겨진 가격으로 입찰가를 만들면 시장성이있는 주문이되고 즉각 실행되기 때문에 중단되고 있기 때문입니다.

대부분의 경우, 매수 정지 명령은 매도 가격이 시장 "매수 호가"에 도달하고 매도 호가 주문이 시장의 "매수"가격에 도달했을 때 실행됩니다.

그들은 시장 질서로 전환되고 유동성을 소비 할 것입니다.

그러나 주문 중단에 대한 독특한 점이 있습니다.

그들은 또한 유동성을 제공 할 수 있습니다.

제가 자산을 팔고 싶어하는 큰 상인이라고 가정 해 봅시다 (이 예에서는 위의 주문서를 잊어 버리십시오). 시장 가격은 현재 44/46입니다 (46에서 구매하고 44에서 판매 할 수 있음).

유동성은 내가 팔고 자하는 계약 금액만큼 충분하지 않기 때문에 나는 44 세에 팔고 싶지 않습니다.

이미 부족한 참가자들로부터 50의 가격을 넘는 구매 정지가 많이 있다는 것을 알고 있습니다.

다른 참가자도이 사실을 알고 있으며 가격은 해당 수준에 매력을 느낍니다.

그러므로 나는 50 위에 내 제안을하고 (51과 52라고합시다) 정차에서 이점을 얻을 것입니다.

가격이 높고 유동성이 약간 희박하다는 이유로 구매자가 많지 않을 가능성이 높습니다.

그러나 강제 구매자가 50 세가 넘고 유동성을 가져야합니다.

내 반바지는 채워질 것이고 가격은 대부분의 구매가 중단 된 반바지에서 나온 것처럼 내 호의로 신속하게 움직일 것 같습니다.

가격은 구매자에게는 매력적이지 않으며 빠르게 하락할 것입니다.

Stop 사냥은 외환 시장뿐만 아니라 모든 시장에서 공통된 활동입니다.

소매업 종사자들은이 사실을 알고 있지만, 대부분 잘못된 방식으로 알고 있습니다.

I’m not talking about your retail broker widening spreads to take some few more stops out, but stop hunting on a larger scale.

Large traders need it for liquidity as above described and bank dealers will also use it also to control their book better.

But let’s leave that for later…

Additional Information About Stop Orders.

Stops are not technically providing liquidity, but in an indirect way.

Let’s again take the above mentioned example. I’m looking to sell an asset which is currently at 44/46 (I can sell at 44 and buy at 46).

I do not find this a good rate to sell at, so I will issue a limit order.

I know there are stops above 50 and those will likely get the attention of predatory traders which will push price into the direction of stops.

I therefore issue two a sell limit order at 51 and 52.

Let’s assume sentiment for the asset is rather mixed and there are not many bulls.

With this, there likely won’t be any buyers at 51 and 52 and price will not even reach those levels.

But with the buy stops above 50 we have forced buyers .

Those traders determined that they want to get out of their short position at those rates and their demand will accelerate the move and trigger my offers.

I provided liquidity to them, but I exploited the weaker side of the market and got into a position at a better rate. Without the forced buyers, they likely wouldn’t get trigered at all.

Regarding your second question: You do not need the DOM to predict order flow.

Even if you have the DOM for i. e. futures, it shows you only orders for the upper and lower five price levels and with those markets being so liquid and fast-changing, you won’t be able to extract any useful information from it.

I used the DOM above to visually explain the process of price change.

I will cover the topic of projecting future flow also at a later point.

There are two ways the stops can help me:

1) the presence of the stop loss orders above will attract the attention of so-called stop hunters.

It can be speculators, model funds (algos) buying into short-term momentum or dealers who do it to manage their books.

I will cover this activity in a later article, but the key is that a larger cluster of stop loss orders will have the attention of other traders, especially when they are near.

2) the stop loss buying that will happen above 50, will accelerate upside momentum for a short period and get my offers triggered.

However, as they were forced buyers and there are little “real buyers” up here, price will quickly drop.

I may explain this better in a real market example:

GBP bias is clearly negative and we saw a sharp drop down to 150.80 on the Sunday opening.

As price declined, there were traders who lowered their stops to protect their gains and in general, more buy stops were building above.

It is a common practice of retail traders (but not only them) to put their stops slightly above the big figure (big figure = every 100 pip price level – i. e. 1.50, 1.51, 1.52) when they are short.

As GBP/USD recovered, first stops above 1.5150 got the attention of stop hunters and then those above 1.52.

Take a look at the chart below and you will see what I described happened twice!

First stops above 1.5150 were taken out and the pair traded up to 1.5160. However, up momentum disappeared and price quickly dropped below.

The 1.5090 support level held and as price marched towards 1.52, stops above were in focus. Do you see what happened?

Stops above 1.52 were triggered, offers were filled, little buyers left after the forced one’s were done and price dropped!

Stop Hunting.

Retail traders are generally aware of stop hunting, but have a wrong idea what it really is.

It is not your retail broker slipping you for a few pips to get your stop.

Those brokers do not have the size to move market in such a way!

As I covered in the previously, large traders cannot simply accumulate or distribute a large position whenever they wish.

They have to look for liquidity and stops are helping them in an indirect way, like I explained in the example above.

That is why stop hunts tend to be quickly faded: The large bids or offers got filled and with the stops triggered, there are no buyers left in a buy stop-hunt scenario and no sellers in a sell stop-hunt scenario.

Those bids and offers tend to stabilize the market.

If there were little of them available as the stops get triggered, it would result into an event called a stop cascade – there is insufficient liquidity for the stop loss orders and price gets pushed into the next area of large stops until bids/offers in good size appear.

There are also traders that anticipate such moves and look to take profit near the level where stops are rumored to be.

Those are mostly short-term speculators and model funds (which buy/sell on momentum).

They will take advantage of the forced buyers/sellers and liquidate their position as price hits into the stops.

We will cover the topic of how to identify levels of concentrated stop loss orders later.

Dealers also participate in this activity.

While there are looking to make some profit from short-term trading, their main task is to provide clients with liquidity and get them filled with less as possible slippage.

Let’s go through a scenario:

EUR/USD is trading at 1.3050 and Dealer “A” sees many of his clients have buy stop orders from 1.3100 up to 1.3110. This means those clients want to get out of their position once price breaks above the determined rate.

If he does nothing and waits for price to break above 1.31, he will have trouble filling his clients without slippage. There will be stops from other market participants above 1.31 and other dealers will be acting similar, pushing price higher fast.

He would fill his clients at a bad rate, earn nothing from it and his reputation would be seriously hit if this would happen several times.

So what can he do?

He can gradually start to accumulate a long position and anticipate a break of 1.31 into the stops.

Dealers tend to have a great feeling for short-term moves and are skilled for having “a feel for the market”.

If he gradually buys EUR/USD all the way up to 1.31, he will be able to fill his clients without slippage and will make a nice profit from it.

More detailed example:

DEALERS ORDER BOOK:

Buy Stops from 1.3100 – 1.3110 worth $100 million.

Buy 20 million 1.3060.

Buy 20 million 1.3075.

Buy 20 million 1.3080.

Buy 20 million 1.3085.

Buy 20 million 1.3090.

Net position = Long 100 million 1.3079.

So he will distribute his position as price breaks above 1.31 and fill his customers stop loss orders.

This can of course go wrong if price fails to maintain the upside momentum and turns lower.

The dealer must then quickly get out of his position.

But again, those traders are skilled at managing their positions and while they can’t be right all the time, like other traders cannot too, they have a good feel for the short-term moves.

How to Use Order Flow Information.

Again, banks do not open their order books directly to just any outsider, one would need good connections.

So people claiming they have some software that shows the order books for the FX market are scammers.

As volume is not concentrated and FX is an OTC market, there is no real ‘Depth of Market’ for the whole market.

The one you maybe see in your trading platform is only the DOM of your broker and retail brokers have a small role in this huge market.

However, discretionary flow information is something different.

There are a few sites that provide this information for free and I’ve been using them long enough to tell they are quite reliable.

Those are people that have some connections in the trading industry, mostly as they worked as traders too in the past.

One needs to distinguish between discretionary information like shown below and people claiming to have DOM’s for the FX market.

Flow information often looks like this:

Bids at 1.30, 1.2980, 1.2950.

Offers at 1.3080, 1.31, 1.3120.

Buy stops above 1.31.

Sell stops below 1.30.

So again, bids are limit orders to buy at a determined price.

Bids mentioned in the flow info providers will be levels where good buying interest is noted.

Offers are limit orders to sell at a determined price.

The mentioned Offers will be where decent selling interest is noted.

Market participants always look for the weaker side of the market, so both buy and sell stops will be targeted. Be aware that you shouldn’t just enter a trade and “gun for the stops”.

You need to have other factors that support your trade idea.

When using this, it is very important to keep in mind that this is additional information that may help you in your trading, but you should not trade off this information alone – that is, using them as trade signals .

Orders get cancelled all the time. We cannot know the size of the mentioned orders. 예 : if there is a lot of demand for EUR/USD and rather small offers ahead, it will absorb those rather easy and continue to move up. If price stops after hitting the cluster of orders, it is not a sign that it will reverse immediately. Watch for additional signals.

Price action and sentiment comes first!

There are always bids and offers, smaller and large ones, but in the end it depends on the power of the bulls or the bears.

As I mentioned, if there is strong demand for EUR/USD, offers will do little on the way up until the accumulation has finished.

How to Use This Information.

First, determine the current sentiment.

Example: The market bias for the Pound is currently very negative and GBP/USD is clearly trading in a downtrend. I therefore will only look for opportunities to sell the pair.

Second, note key price levels. These include bids and offers from the resources I will post below and key technical levels (standard support/resistance levels).

Third, watch for price action to give you a high probability opportunity to enter short. I will cover later some of the various Order Flow techniques I learnt.

For now, I just want to note that you should always use flow information like bids and offers with caution. You want the market bias to be in your favor and wait to see a reaction to those levels, not enter ahead.

I hope I have emphasized enough how important it is not to use them as trade signals, so I will post now the resources I use for the flow information (they are free):

The Thomson Reuters IFR feed also includes good flow information and Oanda offers it for free to clients.

If you dont have access to it, dont worry, there is enough info from the free sources.

The subscription from Reuters costs something like $150 a month, which is way too much and definitely not worth the price, especially for retail traders.

I use the Daily, 4H and 1H chart, but trade on the 5M to execute my trade idea.

Depends on what type of strategy you are concentrating.

If you decide to apply the stop hunt strategy, you can either enter on momentum (e. g. break of intraday S/R level -> target stops below next level) or wait for a retracement into a support/resistance level to get a better entry.

Make sure you concentrate on the high probability opportunities. Clear sentiment (i. e. currently negative GBP and JPY bias) will give you the best edge.

Technical factors include price action around the specific support/resistance level (i. e. if it bounced several times of a support level, stops below will grow larger).

If you want to fade a stop hunt, the entry should be pretty clear (near the stops).

The set up will give you the opportunity to use a tight stop, but here it is even more important to only apply it when sentiment is clear.

You don’t want to go against the flow, as it will just take out your stop and move on.

A good example is EUR/JPY. There were larger stops above 123, but sentiment was clearly JPY-negative and there was real momentum building in EUR/JPY, not just some stop hunting.

Obviously, someone who would have applied the strategy here and went short, would have got stopped out.

On the other side, GBP-sentiment was negative and GBP/USD provided a few good opportunities to fade stop hunts.

I agree that large participants certainly will look to hide their intentions, but the bids/offers mentioned in the feeds that provide flow info are rather levels where a larger amount of different limit orders reside.

Sometimes, more detailed flow info can be leaked (i. e. “x” has large offer 1.30), but those were mostly from corporations (hedgers).

We certainly won’t find info like “Large hedge fund has offers at 1.30”.

I also agree with your 2nd statement and this is why I strongly advised against using such info as trading signals. Sentiment has always priority to order info and traders should wait for a reaction to the reported levels, not acting ahead.

Participants In The Forex Market.

Before we dive further into the world of Order Flow Trading, we must be aware who participates in the FX market. While not all groups have the same characteristics, there are some most have in common. I will split the groups up and explain them all in more detail.

Dealers are the main market makers for the FX market as they operate on the “Tier 1” level – the interbank market. A dealer quotes his customers a bid and an ask price and the difference (the Spread) will be his profit.

As a transaction with his customer takes place, he takes the other side of the trade and can either get rid of his exposure via the interbank market or he can hold the trade if he thinks it will benefit him.

Dealers therefore can hold trades for speculation, but they usually close them in a short time period. They mostly finish their trading day without any open positions.

Dealers are well-informed traders and have a good sense for short-term market movements, so it only makes sense for the banks to let them also do some discretionary trading beside handling customer trades.

They participate in stop hunts, as I explained earlier in the thread, because they look to manage their book.

The network of dealers working for the top FX market-making banks build the “Interbank Market”, the highest tier in the FX market.

Sovereign Names.

This group includes central banks and institutions like the Bank of International Settlements (BIS).

Central banks operate in the FX market on a daily basis and when other participants become aware of their presence, they will pay a lot of attention to what they do.

Asian Central Banks are one group within the Sovereigns that are often identified in the marketplace and news providers like Reuters are reporting about their business.

Especially if things are rather quiet, they can have a strong influence, so keep that in mind! The “BIS” is an institution that handles transaction for other banks.

The idea is basically that other CB’s can operate in the market without being identified.

Nevertheless, any mention of “BIS” or “Basel name” in the news feed is worth paying attention to.

Large Speculators.

Those are hedge funds, model funds (algo & HFT trading) and large traders.

They are in this game for the profit and are the group with the greatest variety amongst members.

Some trade intraday, some exclusively long-term and some combine all of this together.

Model funds mostly focus on automated trading and volatility is something they love.

Most of the hedge funds however, will look for stable trends to ride, like the current GBP and JPY downtrends. As they are leveraged players, they can feel the pain sooner when a squeeze is happening in the market.

It is certainly not just the retail traders getting stopped out, large specs can be caught with a vulnerable stop loss too.

Real Money.

They are called that way because they do not use leverage. Included in this group are mutual funds, classical investment funds and sovereign wealth funds.

They are conservative and will generally either look to manage their currency exposure or, if speculating, look for stable trends.

Hedge funds do too look for trends, but they have the ability to leverage up and switch to short-term trading if they wish to.

As you’ll understand, real money funds that do not operate on leverage and cannot get aggressive, will not be able to operate that way.

Real Money will be usually a bit late in a move, but their presence is still worth noting, as they look to accumulate positions.

Example: Real Money accounts were quite present sellers in GBP/USD the past few weeks.

Commercials.

Commercials (or corporations/businesses) are looking to hedge their currency exposure they have through their business operations, mostly due international business.

Managing their risk is the number 1 task for them and not profits from speculation.

Their activities can have an impact on the markets if they are trading in a big size, but they are not participants one should follow, as they are not profit-motivated in the first place.

Retail Traders.

The number of retail traders that lose is hard to guess, but it is definitely high.

The popularity of Technical Analysis (TA) led them to place their stops at predictable places and this can be exploited by Order Flow Traders.

Even as the number of proven trading strategies shared free has increased over time, most retail traders lack the consistency and discipline to make it in this business.

I hope that gave you a good insight who’s operating in this market and some of their common characteristics.

You are competing against other traders in the market and some of them are powerful players with a lot of experience and capital.

Without losers, there would be no winners. Start thinking about how could you exploit the characteristics of other participants.

Markets are all about fear and greed. As price moves, some will start to feel pain and will have to cover at some point.

Hunting stops and initiating squeezes in the market place is not just about retail traders, professional traders also get stopped out or are forced to cover as the position moves against them.

One of the most important thing is that Order Flow Trading is a mindset that teaches you to exploit the weaker side of the market.

You want to take the high prob opportunities and go with the flow.

Some questions to think about …

1) What are the key themes in the market currently?

2) Pick a currency and write down if current sentiment is positive, negative or mixed. What are the main factors driving current sentiment? You don’t have to be an analyst and you certainly don’t have to make it complicated. Follow a news feed or get some headlines from either Reuters, Bloomberg or Financial Times website. Keep it short in form of notes.

3) What is price action telling you? As prices moves further, compare it to your sentiment analysis.

Think about the stops of other participants.

Think about the characteristics of other participants.

Don’t just see simple “Support/Resistance levels” & # 8230; there is nothing magical about them, orders drive price action. Think about what it means for bulls if a key support level holds. Will they be accumulating further?

Does PA indicates decent demand or are the upmoves quickly running into further selling?

What if the level breaks, where does the pain start for the bulls?

I don’t want to make this complicated or confuse anyone, but in my opinion thinking more deeply about these topics is useful, especially for newbies.

Eventually, I will cover this in more detail through the thread, but take some time to see the markets in a different way than you did before.

When I just started with OFT, I thought about these themes and made a lot of notes and observed the markets.

It was of tremendous help, but I over complicated things a bit.

Just make sure you don’t over complicate things!

Reading Order Flow.

There are several services that provide real-time flow information like the one’s I mentioned above.

Again, they have to be used with caution as orders can get cancelled or can have little or no impact. Also, we don’t want to get too dependent on them.

Imagine a service get’s discontinued – you want to be able to do your own order flow analysis and not let yourself be distracted by this.

Reading order flow is possible on charts and you don’t need the flow info services necessary.

This is how the standard flow info looks like:

Bids at 1.3000, 1.2980, 1.2950.

Offers at 1.3050, 1.3080, 1.3100.

Most of the reported levels are one’s that have cluster of orders at or near it.

From the above mentioned info we could say that there is buying interest (demand) at 1.30, 1.2980 and 1.2950.

The further the level, the more interest we can expect, as traders will feel comfortable buying “very low” or selling “very high”.

Remember that price action can influence sentiment too.

If we see EUR/USD breaking below a key psychological and technical level, some traders will sell on the break (i. e. momentum funds) and with stops getting triggered on the way, this will drive price further lower.

Orders can either:

Get “eaten” along with little or none impact (this is common during a stop cascade/squeeze) Cause a slow down in momentum; price will consolidate Cause a reversal (common during times of low liquidity)

When trading of reported orders, I recommend waiting for a reaction and not putting a limit order ahead.

See how price reacts to the level and how it behaves it after it hits it.

Let’s say price trades down to 1.2950, where we have reported large bids from various participants. We see price stops at the level and retraces back up.

Now, how does it behave on the way up?

Does it seems that there is real momentum building to the upside or are rallies hitting quickly into fresh selling?

Reading the order flow directly is a bit tough in the beginning and it is hard to explain it in words. You have to monitor price action as it happens and take notes.

Combine this with sentiment and you have a real advantage.

Sentiment will give you the biggest advantage. Like I mentioned in my last post, you don’t have to make it complicated.

Note key factors that are driving price action currently, analyze price action itself and keep track of how they correlate.

Let’s take the Aussie Dollar as an example. Sentiment is positive as the RBA indicated it will not cut rates in the near future and on better economic data.

Price action confirms this, so we want to look for reported bids and wait for a reaction.

Nothing works all the time, but with sentiment on your side, you’ll go with the side of least resistance.

What really turned my trading into a profitable business was focusing on the high probability trades.

They don’t require a huge stop and the reward is clearly worth the risk.

Market profile is another factor.

During times of low volatility, playing the range is the best strategy.

Let’s say we are trading in a 1.2950/1.3020 range in EUR/USD and there is no clear sentiment.

You can anticipate a reaction to the reported levels and fade any rally or drop back to the mid range level.

When volatility is high, bids/offers can get consumed along the way quickly and that is an environment where you definitely don’t want to pick a top/bottom.

When there is real strength behind the move, look to join the momentum and not fade it.

In combination with the reported levels, you can identify key supply/demand levels on the charts.

Previous day high/low, previous week’s high/low, previous week’s close level and psychological levels (big figures – i. e. 1.30, 1.31). Start to “read the flow” on the charts and you’ll get better at it with time.

Stops are also easily identified on the charts.

Just think what the technical analysis guides taught you.

They taught you to place your buy stop above the big figure (i. e. 1.30 -> stop at 1.3010) or your sell stop below the big figure (i. e. 1.30 -> stop at 1.2990). Or, above resistance/below support.

Above is an EUR/USD chart that will serve as an example.

Demand at 1.2920 was large and there were first sovereign names reported as buyers and leveraged funds later joined the move.

Obviously, sell stops were building above 1.30 and 1.3080, which flow info services later confirmed. As we moved up, they came more and more to the attention of other traders and of dealers, so it was only a matter of time.

In my opinion, it is better to enter on momentum and push into the stops, than try pick a perfect entry when you have missed the chance.

Obviously, some of those concepts will be familiar to you from some of the technical analysis concepts.

So what is Order Flow Trading about and how is it different?

What I learnt is that I have to think differently about the market.

It is a mindset that will give you a real advantage in the market as you focus on the core mechanism of the markets and on sentiment.

As I mentioned, markets are a great deal about psychology.

I will be honest in saying that my capabilities in explaining some of those specific concepts are not that wide but I hope you get something from these.

Order Flow Trading can be applied in many ways and the above mentioned are just the basic examples.

I have some more article coming soon, then I will try to make the concept more understandable through trade examples and similar.

Price action patterns can be traded successfully without the knowledge about order flow, but knowing the OFT concepts will give you an advantage, as you are more aware why is it happening and you will understand better the factors driving PA.

As I mentioned, it is part a collection of methods based on market microstructure, but also part a mindset.

It encourages you to think more about other participants and how they may act.

My path was the following: Technical analysis (the common indicator-loaded stuff) -> Price Action -> Order Flow Trading.

I see OFT as the final step that helped me transform my trading into a successful endeavor.

It might seem a bit complicated to some in the beginning, but IMO it is worth the effort. However, it is important to suit your trading strategy to yourself.

If you’re doing fine with your PA strategy and are building consistency, stick with it and only modify your approach if you are feeling comfortable with it.

When using the order info, I would concentrate on the reported levels and combine it with your PA analysis and sentiment analysis, rather than focusing too much on who bought/sold.

When there is talk of sovereign (i. e. BIS, ACB) buying/selling during illiquid times, it can have an impact, but most of the times it is already old news.

If we hear a large hedge fund has bought EUR/USD this morning, it won’t matter much for us.

We do not know what the size was, what is the trade idea behind it and it is already old news.

Regarding your 2nd question: I can only reference back to my previous response to you.

What changed OFT for me, was that I could better determine the forces that were causing the PA pattern.

Together with sentiment analysis, I can focus on the high probability opportunities and learning OFT also improved my skills in reading PA.

There are a lot of inefficiencies one can exploit in the market once we get more familiar with market microstructure.

Sentiment Analysis.

Sentiment analysis is an important part of the Order Flow Analysis.

One could focus only on the technical stuff, but incorporating sentiment reading into your analysis will help you to focus on the higher probability trades.

One has not to go to deep into fundamental analysis to apply it.

I do not in-depth analysis about the global economy or specific countries, but rather focus on the key themes in markets and follow news.

There are a lot of free news feeds out there and most brokers offer the one from Dow Jones.

I personally use only the IFR Markets feed from Reuters, but again, the one from Dow Jones or websites like ForexLive will also serve you well.

So what should you be looking for?

1. Key Themes in the Market.

What are the key themes everyone is talking about in the markets?

This should not be too difficult to identify, as news services will report about them frequently. Currently, we have:

a) Cyprus bailout.

b) BoJ Inflation Target.

c) UK’s stagnating economy.

d) The Fed’s response to the improving US economy.

There are themes that will have a long-term impact like the Fed’s future policy and those with short-term impacts like a worse than expected economic data release of lower importance or some temporary political fights.

The short-term impact events often cause inefficiencies, which the OF trader can fade.

The long-term impact themes are the ones that are driving flows and even if you are day trading, going with the flow will give you an edge in the market.

2. Keep Track of Sentiment/Price Action relationship.

I will always look for obvious sentiment (like currently e. g. AUD-positive) and keep track of the price action.

If bias for a currency is positive, because of e. g. improving economic data and good chances of a rate hike, I will look for price action to deviate from this and enter long on a favorable opportunity.

This can be caused by a short-term impact event or it can be a “natural” retracement (profit-taking, short-term market participants).

One of my favorite patterns is the counter-sentiment stop hunt, which I explained earlier in this thread.

If we take again the example of the currency with positive sentiment, we want to look for a stop hunt down into sell stops and fade it.

Especially when there is no specific event/reason driving prices, just a “random” stop hunt, this will offer great opportunities.

3. Price Action Can Influence Sentiment.

It’s a two-way relationship. Like I mentioned in one of my earlier articles and Minotaur wrote about a few posts above, price action also influences market bias.

Let’s take an example from today: Shorts were worried keeping their position open over the weekend as any improvements in the Cyprus bailout deal could lead to a larger spike on the Sunday opening.

Even as market bias for the Euro is negative, the risks are too high for shorts.

There is a short-term base at 1.2880 and the level was respected.

Once buying picked above 1.2940, shorts got even more worried and probably felt there is a squeeze ahead.

Stops above 1.2950 were eventually triggered and it attracted further buying until we finally hit stops above 1.30. 맞춰봐?

We had reports of large offers sitting at 1.30 during the whole week, so short-term participants took advantage of weak shorts by pushing into their stops and some other participants got themselves good short entries at 1.30.

The situation in Cyprus is still bad, but given the lack of concrete news, the market “cleared” the weak side of the market.

결론.

Don’t make it complicated and keep your sentiment analysis simple!

Note key themes in the market, follow the news (focus on one feed and key headlines, don’t become a victim of analysis paralysis) and study the relationship between your sentiment analysis and price action.

Think about your opponents in the market and try to identify the weak side of the market.

Finally, combine it with technical order flow (key levels, stops) and keep in mind that price action can influence sentiment too!

Here is one trade example, it is a position I still have running.

I shorted CL (Crude Oil Futures contract) at an average price of 95.30 as the stop hunt above 95.50 was completed. Sentiment turned negative pretty quickly in FX markets, but US markets were still trading in a tight range.

The choppy price action in the indices and my strong conviction about current negative sentiment in the markets gave me a good reason to stalk a short set-up in CL. Why CL?

Stop hunts occur in every market, but in CL it just tends to “stick out”.

I watched stops getting consumed on the way up and waited for price to lose momentum.

Stops above 95.50 were done and everything indicated CL hit into decent selling interest at 95.50. While upside momentum was quickly regained on the previous move, this was not the case after it hit 95.50.

So, price action combined with my view of negative sentiment, made me short CL at 95.30 and I’ll leave it open for a stop run below 94.

I’ll trail my stop on the way down.

It’s important that I note that it is sentiment that made me anticipate the set-up.

I do not advise going against momentum unless you have sentiment in your favor.

배리어 옵션.

Barrier options are exotic derivates and an option on the price of the underlying asset.

The option writer (typically banks) sell options to the option buyers .

FX Options are traded over-the-counter and not on exchanges.

If the option expires worthless, the option writer has earned the premium (similar to a comission as you enter a trade) and the option buyer has lost.

If the option is in-the-money, the option writer has to pay out the option buyer the specified amount.

Knock-In Options – the option is worthless until the underlying asset hits the specified barrier price in the set time period. Example: EUR/USD spot price is 1.28 and I buy a 1.30 knock-in option. The option is worthless until it breaks above the 1.30 level.

Knock-Out Options – the option becomes worthless if the specified barrier level is hit. Example: GBP/USD spot price is 1.51. I think the pair is heading higher, but do not expect much volatility. If I buy a G/U option with a barrier at 1.53 and it does not reach the price level in the specified time period, I get paid. However, if price breaks above 1.53, the option will become worthless.

Double No-Touch Options - Just like the knock-out option, but it has two specified barrier levels. Example: DNT option for 1.26 / 1.34 in EUR/USD. If price stays within the set range during the stated time period, the option writer has to pay me the specified amount. However, if price breaches any of these two barrier levels, the option will become worthless.

Double One-Touch Option – Knock-in option with two set barrier levels. Example: GBP/USD 1.46 / 1.54. I will get paid on the option if it reaches either of the two set barrier levels during the specified time period. If it does not, it expires worthless.

Barrier options can trade in decent size, there are sometimes ones in the value range of 500 million up to 1.5 billion. Let’s use an example for the Knock-Out barrier option, as it the more common used one.

Put yourself in the position of the option writer.

You sold a 1.27 / 1.34 DNT barrier option to a customer with a 500 million $ payout.

Price is approaching the 1.27 level and that is exactly what you want to see.

Once it hits 1.27, you have pocketed the premium and will keep the half billion.

This is why option desks will gun for these barriers and try to get them triggered. Similar to the FX spot dealer, you want establish a short position and increase downside momentum.

As there are often stops located above/below barriers, this will help to attract the attention of Spot dealers and of predatory traders gunning for the stops.

On the other side, there is the option buyer that has great interest to keep price away from the 1.27 level.

Not everyone can buy a option in that size ($500m), so you can be sure he’s got some firepower too.

He will try to buy ahead of the level and hope there will be also other bids in decent size. A good example is the 1.28 barrier option in EUR/USD that got triggered today.

The option buyer was lucky yesterday, as there was decent demand from Asian Sovereign names and corporates that kept the pair above the barrier level.

However, EUR-negative sentiment led to fresh selling this morning and the pair broke below 1.28.

When we talk about barrier options in decent size (at least, larger than $50M), they certainly can have an impact on markets.

However, I don’t want this to look like there is a battle whenever a barrier option appears.

Just to mention one reason, there are participants that simply don’t care about some barrier option, they are gonna execute their trade idea nevertheless.

Some things to keep in mind:

The “battle” will be more intense if the expiry is near. If the 1.27 barrier option in EUR/USD expires in two days and we are approaching the level, there will be very likely some effort from the option writer to get price down there and from the option buyer to keep price above for these two days. On the other side, if the option expires in two months, but it seems very likely we will break below 1.27, defence from the option buyer will be minimal. Sentiment & Market Profile! If we get bad news from Europe, there will be a lot of selling coming in and nobody’s gonna care about some barrier option. The option buyer will most likely also see that it is not worth defending the barrier – why additionally waste money?

Note reported barrier options (IFR, ForexLive, I mentioned earlier) and establish a position to push into the barrier level.

Preferably, go with sentiment.

Example: There were 1.28, 1.2775 and 1.2750 barrier options reported and sell stops reported below them.

One could not have a more beautiful OF trade: Establish a short position and gun for the barrier and stops below. Given the average daily range of EUR/USD, 1.2750 would’ve been a realistic target.

But a good approach would also be to establish a position and take partial profits as each of the barrier gets triggered to your final target.

In general, it is more preferable to go with the option writer and attack the knock-out barrier, especially when sentiment favors such price action.

However, in a market environment with little volatility and tight ranges, barrier protection can be stronger.

Market Psychology.

Putting ourselves in the shoes of other traders is an effective way to get a better feeling for current market bias .

Remember, fear and greed play a big role in the markets.

Having a good understanding about market psychology can give you an additional edge in the markets.

As price action develops two things happen:

some traders will be driven by greed and other will start to “feel the pain” as the position moves against them.

Let’s take EUR/USD as example:Going into the last ECB press conference, the market was largely short and buying interest was not very high. However, after the ECB meeting, the Euro rallied.

While there were fundamental reasons for the move, price action itself contributed to the shift in sentiment.

As we broke above 1.28, predatory traders were getting ready to push into the large buy stops above 1.29.

Price was moving higher and those positioned short got more nervous.

It was obvious there is a short squeeze ahead and eventually stops above 1.29 were triggered.

In this example, we can see while the shorts started to “feel the pain” and had to cover, the longs took advantage of it and pushed into their stops.

This goes on until some kind of balance is established.

When sentiment takes a turn again, the process will repeat. Let’s say, there is really bad news coming from Cyprus and Euro bias turns negative.

EUR/USD would be driven lower by fresh selling and sell stop clusters would come to the attention of other traders.

Traders positioning is important, whether you daytrade or swing trade.

You can keep an eye on COT positioning for a medium-term view on positioning.

Even if it is lagging a bit, it is still useful, especially when positioning hits extreme levels.

For short-term positioning you can guess it pretty easily once you watch price action for a certain period and get some feel for the markets.

So, here is some homework: Try do apply some of this in your trading.

In the previous sections, you have learned about other market participants characteristics and how to identify stop clusters. Combine it with the above mentioned method.

Important: Don’t try to see a stop hunt or squeeze in every move. Stay focused on the key technical levels and the stops that are located above/below.

On a personal note…

I’d like to share some of my experiences in the trading business.

Like most people do, I got into trading with the “Get rich quick” 사고 방식.

The world of trading is exciting, it is easy to get lost in emotions.

Prices moving rapidly, news coming in every minute and tons of various chart patterns – I tried to get as much information together as I could, with the belief it will not take too long until I’m making serious money.

We all know how these stories end – with a blown up account! I didn’t lose all the money in my first account, but I was pretty close.

I’m thankful for this experience, as I got at least rid of the “get rich quick” 심리.

I decided I’ll simply get rich slowly…

As I mentioned in the opening post, I started trading in the stock market.

I wasn’t really an active trader, doing some simple technical analysis, combined with some fundamental analysis and holding trades for at least a few days.

When I got out of equities, it was the forex market that got me all excited about markets & trading and made me decide that I want to build a business out of it.

We all felt that excitement about trading currencies, right? The largest market in the world and a truly global one – open 24 hours, 5 days a week.

I started applying various forms of technical analysis, from indicators to chart patterns.

I thought this has to be the key to successful trading – an approach that rationalizes price movements with all available information included in the charts.

Why use fundamental analysis?

It was all in the candles, I thought.

For some time, I went through the highs and lows of trading – being overexcited when hitting a winning streak and frustrated as I realized that my strategy “did not seem to work anymore”.

Like most traders, I then removed all the indicators and traded the naked charts.

This gave me a little better understanding about the markets, as I focused on price action, not on indicators. I did better than in the first stage of trading, but still lacked consistency.

I always felt that I’m missing a piece of the puzzle and it kept on bugging me.

This prevented me from strictly following my rules and achieving the consistency I was seeking.

However, I had that deep felling in me that trading is what I want to do.

I’m sure many of you had the same feeling at some point? I HAD to succeed in this, not because I desperately seeked a way to accumulate wealth quickly, but because I’ve found something I love to do.

So, I did not rest and continued to do research.

After spending some more time with price action trading, modifing various strategies, I stumbled upon a few threads about order flow on FF.

The topic seemed a bit complex on the first look, but I felt that I’ve finally found the missing puzzle piece I was looking for.

See, it’s not just the order flow strategies I’ve been applying that turned me into a consistent and successful trader. It is the way of thinking – the mindset – of an OF trader that was a game changer for me.

Instead of rationalizing everything through technical analysis, I chose to study what other participants operate in the marketplace and what characteristics they share.

I see the markets completely different now and I can get a feeling for market bias much easier. My knowledge about market microstructure help me understand events that occur in the market in a clearer way.

It is a constant seek for liquidity and clearing out the weaker side of the market. This is no overstatement – your loss is somebody else’s gain.

Trading is not my primary source of income, but it provides a nice, additional flow of money and I love to trade.

Not depending on the money allows me to trade stress free.

If you want to be successful over the long run, you have to stop thinking about the money.

I know it’s very hard.

It took me years to achieve it.

But after you calculated your risk and reward on the trade, stop thinking about the money!

You have to think objectively about your trade and focus on your plan. As soon as you start to think about the cash, stop the thoughts!

Furthermore, you have to find a strategy that suits you.

You have to feel comfortable applying it and you need to have confidence in what you are doing. Doubt can be very costly in trading.

Follow your trading plan strictly after you have a strategy that you’ve tested and feel comfortable with.

We all go through tough times, I still have them too.

But you have to stay calm and think about your long-term goals.

Also, don’t compare your results to those of others.

I couldn’t care less if there is a guy making millions with system “XYZ”, I got a trading style that suits me and I’m the only person responsible for the risks I take. When you’re in a trading room, stay honest.

You will gain nothing if you act like a pro trader.

Be honest to yourself in trading and accept temporary defeats. Be honest when you need help.

If some people make stupid remarks about the mistakes you’ve made, ignore them, they are likely people without self-confidence, acting likely they are perfect traders and trying to hide that they’re actually losing.

Truth is, trading is a tough game.

Like every other profession in life, it takes time to get to a pro level.

YOU will be your biggest enemy as it is unavoidable that you’ll be driven by emotions from time to time. It is key that you keep a cool head and think long-term.

I wrote all my trading rules (analysis, strategy, entry, management, exit, money management) on a paper sheet and sticked it on the wall, so I can always see it from my trading desk.

When you find yourself tempted to break a rule, keep an eye on the plan and do the right thing…

I cannot say if Order Flow Trading is something for you, or not.

You will need to find that out by yourself.

But what I want you to understand is that if you study OFT and apply it, it is not limited to a specific strategy.

It does not mean you have to trade stop hunts. Like I described earlier, it is a mindset and you can combine it with other strategies, which do not have to be directly OF-related.

Start by studying market microstructure.

You will great info in Darkstar’s book, Carol Osler’s academic papers and the various threads on the internet.

To conclude, trading is a lot about psychology and no method or strategy can guarantee you success, but you will see that through the OF mindset, you’ll be able to see the markets from a different, more advanced perspective.

Applying Order Flow Techniques on the Charts – 1 부.

Understanding the importance of liquidity and what role stops play in the markets, you can now apply it directly in your trading.

While there are several services that report where stop loss orders reside, it should be your goal to learn it yourself. After all, we want to make sure we are not too dependent on any news service or similar in our trading.

There a few key things you need to keep in mind about the accumulation of stop loss orders in the markets:

1) The higher the timeframe, the higher the number of market participants being aware of a certain technical pattern and placing orders based on it.

Simply, more traders will notice a pattern on a 4-hour chart than one on the 15 minute chart. There is a lot of noise on the minutes charts and not many traders will bother with interpreting too much into it.

2) The larger the number of confluences, the larger the size of the orders.

If a key resistance level happens to be near the 200 simple moving average and the 50.00 % Fibonacci level from a key market swing (i. e. drawn from the monthly high to the monthly low), it will get even more attention and orders around it will be larger.

3) The longer a pattern exists, the larger the size of the orders.

Let’s say we have an established range in EUR/USD between 1.30 and 1.32. Limit orders will start to cluster at both levels and stops will be placed below 1.30 and above 1.32. The longer the range exists, the larger the stops will grow until one side finally cracks and triggers the stops.

We can see in the example above that GBP/USD traded within a 1.5450 – 1.5600 range. Stops were growing larger on both sides as price remained within the range.

There were two things telling us that the downside was more likely to crack than the upside: 1) Weak UK fundamentals combined with USD strength and 2) the way price action reacted as it tested the lower range, we actually took out the stops below 1.5460, a sign that buyers aren’t as strong as the sellers ahead of 1.56.

Remember what I taught you about market psychology.

Once traders start feeling uncomfortable with their position (at least the professional one’s), they will look to cover. GBP/USD was just not able to break convincingly above 1.56 and on every failure, which was followed by a downmove, there were some longs covering.

The sellers were able to play this game for quite a while and they finally gained the upper hand on Friday, being able to push the pair into the weak sell stops.

Applying order flow trading is considering the technical picture and taking advantage of the weak side of the market.

How to Mark Large Stop Clusters on your Charts.

1) Open a blank chart – start with the Daily chart.

2) Note key support and resistance levels on the Daily and note at which price level the 200 SMA is trading. If you wish, draw a Fibonacci retracement from the latest major swing low to the most recent major swing high.

3) Move down to the 4H chart and again note the key S/R levels. Mark them in a different color.

4) Switch to the 1H chart and repeat the process, noting minor S/R levels. Again, draw them in a different color than the previous ones, so you can regonize them more easier.

Here is an example (EUR/USD):

I started with the Daily and moved then to the 4H chart, noting key support and resistance levels.

Repeat the process on the one hour chart.

I did not mark the Daily 200 SMA and the Fibs on the example above, but feel free to do so if you consider it helpful.

Stops are building below major support levels and above major resistance levels with limit orders very likely ahead. Your task is now to get a feeling for market bias and read price action to recognize the weaker side of the market and take advantage of them.

Applying Order Flow Techniques on the Charts – 파트 II.

In the last section, I described the process of finding large stop clusters on the charts.

Now, I will try to explain how I read price action with the Order Flow mindset applied.

So why do key support/resistance levels work most of the times?

There is psychological attachment to them! That’s why!

Let’s take EUR/USD for example:

1.2980 to 1.30 is currently strong resistance and sellers are lining up offers there in anticipation that the level will hold. Traders that are short EUR/USD are watching this level closely and a break above 1.30 would be painful to them.

Just think of the situation where you feel quite comfortable with a position and think it will run further in your favor and then suddenly you see a sharp move which takes out a i. e. key resistance level.

Even professional/institutional traders have such situations where it doesn’t make sense for them to hold a position further.

As the 1.2980-1.30 zone is an established resistance zone, EUR/USD shorts are watching it closely and how price action behaves in the zone can largely influence market sentiment.

If we get another run into 1.2990, but it fails to even reach 1.30 and drops back quickly, the bears will feel renewed optimism.

Bulls on the other side will feel frustrated and will question whether their EUR/USD long position makes sense. Stops are building on both sides and it’s just a matter of time until it becomes clear which side has the upper hand.

What if we get a breakout above 1.30 and stops from EUR/USD shorts get triggered?

Bulls will have gained the upper hand in the short-term as they cleared some of the shorts, but much will depend on price action after this event.

Most important of course, are fundamentals. But then, are the dips well-bid compared to the selling that occurs at the rallies? Are bulls showing a strong initiative to keep price above?

A false breakout followed by another drop would mean this was just a short victory for the bulls.

To conclude: When trading you want to think about the other participants and what they are likely to do in a certain scenario.

Sentiment analysis can give us a very good edge and it can compensate if you struggle a bit with understanding fundamental analysis.

Price action can also reveal a good amount of information – keep an eye on how the dips and the rallies look like. If we have small rallies, but strong downmoves, the bears are in control.

How To Analyse Market Sentiment.

How do you tell if the market sentiment is negative or positive for a currency pair?

Here’s are the steps:

I start by checking the relevant headlines on Reuters, Bloomberg, reading the opening reports on OrderFlowTrading and then write down what I perceive as prevailing sentiment for each major currency. Then compare the market sentiment to price action.

All resources you need for sentiment analysis are available for free, so there is no need to subscribe to any services with in-depth analysis.

When I was a beginner in order flow trading, I found it more useful to focus on the key headlines and topics traders are talking about.

When you got an idea about the market sentiment, compare it to price action, make brief notes and see at the end of the trading day if you got it right (or not).

Again, don’t get confused by all the intraday noise, but focus first on medium-term sentiment.

Sentiment Analysis Example.

Lets Look at Australia, the AUD:

& # 8211; RBA likely to cut rates further this year, while the FED is expected to scale down it’s QE program.

& # 8211; Australian fundamental data doesn’t look healthy, Chinese growth is slowing down, commodities prices are dropping.

& # 8211; Prevailing market bias is negative.

& # 8211; COT data shows AUD short positioning is not at extreme levels yet, could still expand.

& # 8211; Price action shows small rallies and large downmoves.

& # 8211; 0.96 is now the key level everyone is watching.

When fading, I wait first for a reaction to the level.

Even if sentiment is in our favor, we must keep in mind that orders can be withdrawn or that a sudden turn in flow occurs and the levels breaks without much effort needed.

A good example is currently AUD/USD.

While sentiment remains negative overall, there was quite some short-covering going on today and it took out the 0.95 and 0.9550 resistance levels easily.

Look how price acts once it has broke a major technical or large order level. Assuming a large resistance level where offers in good size reside, you don’t only want to see price slowing down, but also how it reacts later.

In this example, rallies should be small and downmoves larger.

For this, I switch to the small timeframes (M1, M5) to see the PA more clearly.

If the dips ran into good buying interest and the rallies seem stable, you don’t want to fade the move.

It all comes down to risk-reward, when there is clear sentiment, you can go sometimes ahead and fade it, but the most important thing is that you accept when you are wrong .

For example, if someone focused on the AUD-negative sentiment and forced himself to believe the Aussie has to trade lower, he would have got hurt today.

If you fade and the trade goes wrong, accept it and either a) go with the flow or b) stay out of the pair.

The point of order flow trading is going with the overall flow and taking advantage of inefficiencies and not fighting the strong flow.

Go ahead and compare two pairs.

AUD/USD as it broke above the key resistance level at 0.9550 today:

What do you see?

1) Price broke above pretty clearly, taking out the offers without much problem.

2) More importantly, the dips remained well-bid.

3) Price broke back below the now-support 0.9550 level, but strong buying interest at the dip to 0.9535.

This is how a well-bid pair looks like and something you don’t want to fight.

As you can see, AUD/USD broke above 0.96 later.

See how parabolic that move was?

Not only that, but how little support it found after that stop hunt? Combine this with mixed sentiment and you have a good fade trade.

Now, I hope you can understand what I mean by reading price action.

It becomes much easier with time and you’ll start to see things much more clearly as you gain experience.

I trade quite often on intuition, because I’ve watched markets for so long.

Market Squeezes.

You have probably already heard the term “squeeze” in financial markets.

It describes a market where traders are caught overly positioned to one side, which leaves them vulnerable to sentiment-changing events or large players taking advantage of their vulnerability by engineering a “technical” squeeze.

How A Market Squeeze Can Happen.

There are two main ways market squeezes can happen-by an event/news or by technical reason.

I will explain each below…

1) DUE TO AN EVEN THAT HAS CHANGED SHORT TERM SENTIMENT.

A very recent example is the USD/JPY squeeze we saw the last night in the Asian trading session.

Traders expected that the Japanese Prime Minister Abe and his party will win the majority in the Upper House election – which they did.

However, this was already priced in as many traders bought the USD/JPY on Friday on those expectations.

This resulted in a squeeze of the traders who were positioned long. Those who where long, took profits, and some predatory traders joined the selling to profit from the move.

Once the stops below 100 started to getting triggered, downside momentum picked up until we ran into good-sized bids around 99.60.

2) DUE TO TECHNICAL REASONS.

Large players can engineer a short squeeze without an event to gain more favorable conditions for themselves.

This is most commonly seen as a stop hunt, as the stops from those short-term traders are usually triggered in this process.

You have to keep in mind that it is the job of financial journalist to always find a reason why a certain price move has happened.

So if you notice that there is really no reason why a certain pair moved, but you are aware of the fact that positioning is either overly long or short, you can imply that this was simply a stop hunt.

How To Take Advantage Of Market Squeeze.

1) If there is no reason for a certain price move and you are sure it was only stop loss-driven, you can fade the move and trade in the direction of the trend/sentiment.

You could of course join the squeeze and try to hunt the stops, but you need to be quick.

2) The squeezes that happen due to an event that has changed short-term sentiment or even medium-term/long-term sentiment endure longer and you can take advantage of those trapped traders that are caught on the wrong side by joining the squeeze.

For example: Let’s say the RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) does not cut interest rates in August.

The majority of traders expected they would do so and positioning is extremely short. What will happen? We will see a larger short squeeze driven by position covering and stop loss triggering.

Tools for Market Positioning:

Retail positioning is of course not significant for such a large market, but you can use it to get an idea what some of the retail traders are doing.

Most of them use similar strategies and a large majority of them is positioned wrong, so you want to notice when market positions is overly long or overly short.

COT Charts (based on the CFTC IMM report released every Friday):

Sites where you can get occasionally info about overall FX interbank positioning (from what I’ve figured out they derive it from various bank reports etc.):

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